Most financial media tells you what happened. We tell you what it means — and more often than not, what’s coming next.
We cover prediction markets the way they deserve to be covered: as a serious information market, not a curiosity, not a gambling sidebar, not a tech novelty that journalists stumble into during slow news weeks. Prediction markets are one of the most consequential developments in how the world prices uncertainty. That’s the beat. We take it seriously.
Markets tracked
4+
Kalshi · Polymarket · Manifold · PredictIt
Coverage
Global
US · EU · Asia · emerging markets
Published
Daily
Analysis updated every 6 hours
Paid partnerships
None
Editorial independence, always
Beats covered
6
Regulation · trading · law · policy · media · data
Sources monitored
100+
News feeds, filings, platform data, legal records
What we cover
Regulation & law
CFTC battles, court rulings, state bans, congressional hearings
Market moves
Odds shifts, volume spikes, contract launches, platform data
Institutional money
Wall Street entry, venture capital, exchange partnerships
Insider trading
Suspicious patterns, enforcement actions, platform responses
Global expansion
International bans, cross-border platforms, emerging markets
Media & journalism
How newsrooms use prediction data, ethical questions, influence
“Prediction markets are one of the most consequential developments in how the world prices uncertainty. That’s the beat.”
What We Do
The team behind this publication comes from the trading floor, the newsroom, and the law office. Not as résumé items — as actual working backgrounds that shape how we read a regulatory filing, how we interpret a sharp move in contract prices, how we distinguish between a market that’s genuinely informed and one that’s just reacting to noise.
We track the major platforms — Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt and others — but we’re not cheerleaders for any of them. When a platform makes a smart call, we say so. When a market is thin, manipulated, or just wrong, we say that too. The analysis doesn’t change because a company has a PR budget.
Our coverage spans the full global picture. Washington’s regulatory fight over whether prediction markets are commodities or gambling products. The legal battles working through federal courts that will define what these platforms can and cannot offer. The trading patterns that raise serious questions about insider information. The institutional money — Schwab, Citadel, JPMorgan — circling an industry that’s still figuring out its own rules. And the markets themselves: the odds, the moves, the moments where the crowd gets it right and the moments where it catastrophically doesn’t.
Why It Matters
There’s a version of prediction market coverage that treats every new contract as content and every probability shift as a headline. That’s not what this is.
The real story is structural. We’re watching a new class of financial instrument establish itself in real time, fighting for legitimacy against incumbent industries with enormous lobbying power, while simultaneously attracting the kind of trading behavior — suspected insider activity, coordinated moves, politically sensitive bets — that gives regulators exactly the ammunition they need to shut the whole experiment down. That tension doesn’t resolve cleanly. It’s not supposed to. And covering it well means sitting with that complexity rather than flattening it.
We also think calibration matters. When we say a market implies a 68% probability of X, we mean it precisely — not as a gesture toward data, but as the actual claim. We track outcomes. We revisit calls. If a market was wrong, that’s part of the record too.
Who We’re For
Traders who want context beyond the contract page. Analysts and researchers building a picture of how these markets move. Lawyers and policy professionals watching the regulatory landscape shift in ways that will matter for years. Journalists covering adjacent beats who need a reliable read on what the markets are actually saying. And anyone who finds the question of how crowds price the future genuinely interesting — which, if you’ve read this far, probably includes you.
Our Standards
We don’t accept payment for coverage. No sponsored markets, no promoted platforms, no undisclosed relationships with the companies we write about. The analysis is independent or it’s worthless — those are the only two options.
When we’re wrong, we say so. When the market is wrong, we say that too.